sabato 24 novembre 2012

L'Argentina fallirà, di nuovo...

Nel 2001 l'Argentina era in ginocchio. Dopo 11 anni, nonostante le risorse del paese, la situazione è di nuovo gravissima tanto che il fallimento non è poi così remoto, anzi.


L'inizio del nuovo millennio fu caratterizzato da due eventi che tutti ricorderanno: l'11 settembre 2001 e il default dell'Argentina. Se il primo è un episodio unico (si spera) nella storia, il secondo non è poi così lontano dal tornare di attualità.

Lo stato dell'America Meridionale si trova infatti ad affrontare di nuovo problemi economici e finanziari tanto da far tornare in mente quei drammatici mesi il cui eco arrivò fino da noi in Italia, vista la grande quantità di persone (anziani soprattutto) che investirono i loro risparmi in bond argentini.

Non è la prima volta che ne parlo: chi mi segue si ricorderà quel "Emigriamo tutti nel paradiso chiamato Argentina", post in cui ironizzavo su ciò che la presidentessa Kirchner e alcuni pseudo economisti andavano sostenendo.

Il bello e il brutto dell'economia è che i nodi prima o poi vengono al pettine e questo è, di nuovo, il momento per il paese.

Se è vero che il PIL argentino è cresciuto dal post default, bisogna precisare che A) il paese è su una miniera d'oro dal punto di vista delle materie prime (petrolio in primis) e visto l'apprezzamento delle stesse in questi 10 anni esse ne hanno influenzato la crescita e B) soprattutto negli utlimi anni, essa è dovuta ad un notevole aumento di spesa pubblica e dell'inflazione.

Per quanto riguarda l'inflazione, le stime ufficiali del governo (dall'istituto INDEC) parlano di una stima del 9-10%, mentre per alcuni economisti "privati" (autori del blog Foco Economico) il tasso è più del doppio:



Sulla spesa pubblica, devo ricordare che l'Argentina de facto non può chiedere prestiti (nessuno si fida a prestarle soldi) quindi per forza deve un avanzo commerciale, cosa che viene a mancare:


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

Questo è dovuto proprio all'aumentare della spesa pubblica (fonte grafici):


La situazione del deficit è preoccupante, visto che il livello è pari a quello pre-default 2001.

Come paga questo debito? La presidentessa ha in pratica Kirchnerizzato la Banca Centrale (vedi qui) ed a questo è dovuta la spaventosa inflazione.

Gli argentini hanno quindi cercato di difendersi convertendo i propri soldi in dollari. Difesa che però è stata subito contrastata dalla Kirchner la quale ad esempio ha proibito di prelevare dollari e reso difficilissime le importazioni (il Financial Times ha dedicato a tutto ciò un post dal titolo azzeccatissimo a mio parere: "From frustrating to surreal") con ovvie conseguenze.

Un capitolo a parte meriterebbe tutta la questione di YPF, la compagnia petrolifera di proprietà della spagnola Repsol che è stata nazionalizzata qualche mese fa con polemiche ancora oggi non placate che avrò come conseguenza quella di veder fuggire tutti i potenziali investitori internazionali.

Come se ciò non bastasse, pochi giorni fa è arrivata la sentenza dal tribunale di NY che rischia di far crollare una volta per tutte il castello di carta costruito dalla presidentessa.






L'Argentia è una bomba ad orologeria, pronta ad esplodere di nuovo. Non ditelo però a quei sedicenti "economisti", come Loretta Napoleoni, che invocavano questo paese e la sua presidentessa come esempio da seguire.

Aggiornamento 22 dicembre 2012:
Argentina, Saccheggi Nei Supermercati:2 Morti, Decine di Feriti. Per quelli che "seguiamo il modello Argentino"...

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